Marriage and Family

"Separate Two-Child" Policy Research based on System Dynamics Simulation

Ruan Yajie
School of Humanities and Law, Northeastern University
Population Journal 2015-1

Abstract:At present, China's total fertility rate of about 1.4, and the intemationally recognized reasonable total fertility rate should be 2.1 or so, and the aging problem is prominent, countries adapt to the situation to launch the "separate two-child" policy, the policy effect, it is necessary to research the how on earth based on the system dynamics model for simulation experiment was carried out on the "separate two-child" policy, and found a new born child number 2 under this policy is no substantive change China's population structure, solve the current problems we are facing, and at the same time, we made the comprehensive open- ing of child policy comparison test, the results showed that under the condition of full liberalization, births is growing rapidly, at the end of the explosive growth in the total number is increased but not, in general, in the current situation, to solve the population problem out two child policy role than separate two child policy. So we suggest that the "separate two-child" policy to "open up 2 children", on the basis of the necessary measures to solve social problems such as high cost of child-rearing, application procedure complex, through publicity and education and so on change under the environment of economic rationality at the same time hedonism and other unhealthy parenting,the restoration of China's total fertility rate to a due level.
Keywords:Separate Two-Child Policy, Population Forecast, System Dynamics, the Fertility Rate

Paper type:Published
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