Analysis on the Trends of Mortality Rate and Life Lost Among Female Patients with Ovarian Cancer in Xiamen City
Maternal and Child Health Care of China 2016-12
Abstract：Objective To understand the mortality rate, life lost status and the trends among female patients with ovarian cancer in Xiamen city, provide a basis for comprehensive prevention and treatment of ovarian cancer in Xiamen city. Methods The data of death of female residents in Xiamen city dying of ovarian cancer from 2003 to 2014 was collected and analyzed to calculate mortality rate, the average percentage change( APC) of mortality rate, and average years of life lost( AYLL); GM( 1, 1) model was used to predict mortality rate and AYLL. Results From 2003 to 2014, the average mortality rate due to ovarian cancer among the women in Xiamen city was 1. 41 per100 000 persons, the yearly increasing rate was 5. 31%. The mortality rate rose as the age grew and the median age was 60 years old. AYLL because of ovarian cancer was 7. 8 years. The mean absolute percentage errors between observed values and fitted values were 2. 41%( mortality rate) and 2. 83%( AYLL). The mortality and AYLL of ovarian cancer in the women in Xiamen city would increase from 2015 to2017. Conclusion The mortality rate due to ovarian cancer among the women in Xiamen city showed an increasing trend; GM( 1, 1)model can be used to forecast the trends of mortality rate and AYLL, the age-at-death would be younger in future, prevention and control of ovarian cancer should be paid more attention to.
Keywords：Ovarian cancer, Potential years of life lost, Mortality rate, GM(1, 1) model, Prediction